Why I No Longer Make Predictions
I believed I could be protected from what lay ahead as long as I saw what was coming.
I think there’s about an 80 to 90 percent chance that I love you now.
What's the probability I’ll die on a Tuesday while passing that bench by the East River? truth
’t complete until I’d done the final calculations to resolve any lingering questions.
I will still be friends with Lisa (i.e., still be on friendly terms with and see her at least twice a month) by the end of 2015: 35 percent.
I will sleep with John: 5 percent.
We will successfully diagnose the cause of Mom's memory loss: 20 percent.
This is not going to happen
Often I was correct in my guesses, but when I wasn’t, the poor performance bothered me little. It was the act of making predictions that I needed. Making a prediction focuses your attention; it says “look here and look out.” That spreadsheet served as road map for the future and a way to equip me for the emergencies ahead.
that
So, how does one create these emotional estimates?It's really kind of just bullshit,
Angela Chen is a science journalist and the author of Ace: What Asexuality Reveals About Desire, Society, and the Meaning of Sex, which was named one of the best books of 2020 by NPR, Electric Literature, and Them. Her reporting and essays have also appeared in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, MIT Technology Review, The Guardian, National Geographic, Paris Review, Lapham's Quarterly, and more.
Enter your email address to receive notifications for author Angela Chen
Success!
Confirmation link sent to your email to add you to notification list for author Angela Chen
More by this author
Writing a Book About Asexuality Taught Me to Look for a Fate Beyond Numbers
I learned to reevaluate the meaning of ‘normal’ in relationships, and also my habit of reflexively turning to data.
How I Learned to Tell Signal from Noise and Appreciate Calm
It can be easy to confuse real emotion with the shiny drama enfolding it. Sometimes grand gestures are signs of grand feeling—sometimes they’re not.
On Being Young, Scrappy, and (Sometimes) Satisfied
Remain forever hungry, or enjoy the tried-and-true? Sometimes, I learned, it’s okay to double down on the life you have.
More in this series
Genetic Testing Can Tell You a Lot About Yourself—But What If You Don’t Want to Know?
I wanted the most information possible and thought I had nothing to fear. Then my mother began to lose her memory.
Is It Possible to Truly Know Yourself? (Probably Not—and That’s Okay.)
There is opportunity in forcibly rewriting a story, in trying out identities that might not feel true at first.
No Best Friend, But Better Off
Friendship is not about going down a list with some people always first, others second and third. Every friendship is unique.